DraftKings is running a special this May 14th, in which you can place a risk-free wager of $5.14 on anything. Who doesn’t like free money? In addition to this promotion, DraftKings PA also gives new depositors up to $1,000 in bonuses, including a $500 free bet and 20% deposit match up to $500. To qualify, it’s a 25X play-through. Both DraftKings promotions are for new users and existing users, so now is the perfect time to get back in on the action while the incentives are there.
With a free bet to make, there are some options to take, but I’m probably going to take the safe route and go with some NFL futures.
Jerry Jeudy under 900 yards receiving (-130)
I wrote an article not too long ago, stating that rookie receivers were big question marks for fantasy football purposes. The numbers since 2016 have shown that rookie receivers underperform, especially compared to their expectations in year one. Jerry Jeudy, though polished all-around, has been dropped into an offense alongside two-year emerging star wideout, Courtland Sutton, as well as free-agent running back, Melvin Gordon.
The arrival of Gordon means a new, dependable safety blanket out of the backfield and a proven talent as a rusher. Courtland Sutton, on the other hand, racked up 1,100 yards as the Broncos leading receiver in 2019. In Sutton’s first season in Denver, he produced just 700 yards on 84 targets. Though Jeudy is considered more polished than Sutton was coming out of college, the Broncos have a quarterback who’s made just five starts in the NFL since being drafted in 2019. Drew Lock still has a lot to prove in the league and the Broncos are by no means a polished unit offensively.
The Broncos also added another receiver, KJ Hamler, in the draft. Hamler is an undersized speedster out of Penn State and one who also stands to receive a decent amount of playing time in 2020. Noah Fant is another potential target threat, as the second-year tight end from Iowa amassed 562 yards on 40 receptions (66 targets). This offense is full of weapons and led by an unproven second-year quarterback in Drew Lock.
The bet looks very safe to me. There’s not a very strong history of rookie receivers having big seasons. In the case of AJ Brown last season, Brown was the clear number one in the offense, and it was relatively apparent even after the draft. That offense caught fire with the appointment of Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and Brown’s target share was disproportionately high. Not only does Jeudy not have that luxury, but he also has the disadvantage of the current pandemic, which should cut into the time players will have for training camp this season, thus delaying the chemistry development between quarterbacks and young receivers.